Social outcomes of participatory scenario planning for Canadian social-ecological landscapes
Overview
Scenario panel from Nova Scotia Bay of Fundy workshop
We live in the Anthropocene era when environmental challenges driven by humanity are becoming more complex and uncertain. Thus, our ability to navigate and prepare for these uncertainties has never been as crucial for more sustainability and resilience. Participatory Scenario Planning (PSP) is a popular approach in sustainability science to explore such plausible futures of systems of interest. PSP brings together diverse knowledge and perspectives in a collaborative process to co-develop alternative storylines of the futures or “scenarios” under key uncertainties of the system. However, gaps still exist in how PSP influences its participants regarding how they think for sustainability.
Project Lead: Elson Galang
Scenario Development
We organized and facilitated PSPs across social-ecological landscapes that are part of NSERC ResNet to explore alternative environmental futures given the landscapes’ key drivers and uncertainties. We have so far led or collaborated in conducting PSPs to explore the environmental futures of:
· Management of intertidal wetlands and dykelands of the Bay of Fundy in Nova Scotia
· Restoration of wetlands, agricultural landscapes, and urban greenspaces in Quebec
· Indigenous governance of otters in Pacific coast landscapes in British Columbia
Collaborators: E Bennett, Gordon Hickey, Kate Sherren, Jeremy Lundholm, Lara Cornejo, Monique Poulin, Poliana Mendes, Hannah Klobluk, Anne Solomon
Approach1
We took as our case the PSPs outlined above to understand how such a collaborative futuring process influences the knowledge and feelings of participating environmental actors. Specifically, we measured the social learning effects of the process or the changes in terms of their systems thinking, rational trust, environmental goals, and empathy. We implemented ex-ante and ex-post analysis, with a three-month follow-up of these changes using psychometric tools and questionnaires designed to capture these social learning effects. We also conducted follow-up interviews, transcript analysis, and critical reflections to support our results.
Collaborators: E Bennett, Gordon Hickey, Blane Harvey, Julia Baird, Gillian Dale, Kate Sherren
Approach 2
We reviewed existing literature on PSP conducted in local and landscape scales to understand the process’s transformative power among its participants. We systematically selected articles and inductively coded the researchers' different measures, observations, and reflections regarding the outcomes or changes brought about by participating in their PSP.
Collaborators: Elena Bennett, Gordon Hickey